By “positive feedback” (positive feedback, Positive Rückkopplung) we mean a process that excites itself. The elements of a system interact in such a way that the process which triggered the effect becomes ever stronger. This phenomenon occurs in technical devices, in biological systems, and in society as well. For example, everyone has probably experienced the phenomenon when the sound system at an event breaks into an ear-piercing squeal: the microphone picks up the sound coming from the speakers and feeds it to the amplifier, which amplifies it and sends it back to the speakers, from where it reaches the microphone again, and so on. Fortunately, the output power of the speakers is finite, so the squeal cannot grow without limit. Also, oscillation has specific conditions (that’s why it squeals at a single pitch); if you circumvent those conditions, you can eliminate the phenomenon. Our devices contain oscillators by the millions, and their operation relies on our ability to keep this effect under control.
In nature the phenomenon exists only briefly: undamped systems with positive feedback collapse quickly. Positive feedback is possible in human societies too (an example would be the current rise of the Tisza Party in Hungary). It can even occur within a single person—for instance, consider phobophobia (the fear of fear itself): activation of the sympathetic nervous system is usually triggered by threatening situations, but in some people the feeling of fear, or its physical symptoms (e.g., rapid heartbeat, cold sweat, etc.), trigger it. The consequence? A panic attack.
This week I was talking with someone about how it’s not worth having children among so many fools. A good example of positive feedback is that the more fools there are, the less inclined intelligent people are to reproduce (or they move away). So there will be even more fools, because fools reproduce at a higher rate. That’s positive feedback leading to the dumbing-down of society. What’s worse, foolishness is contagious, like smallpox—there’s an old Hungarian proverb, “one fool makes a hundred,” meaning that in time even those who weren’t born foolish become so. Let’s take a quick look at the mechanism behind this.
Human Thinking is Full of Traps – and One of the Most Dangerous is Survivorship Bias. This is the phenomenon where we notice the successes but ignore the failures, and so we draw false conclusions about the world. The classic example comes from World War II: engineers observed that returning aircraft were riddled with bullet holes on their wings, and their first thought was to reinforce those areas.
But someone thought differently. Abraham Wald (Hungarian: Wald Ábrahám, Yiddish: אברהם וואַלד), a Hungarian-born statistician (yes, originally from Transylvania!), who later contributed to the Manhattan Project, realized this was a logical trap. The planes that didn’t come back were the ones hit in vital areas like the engines or cockpit. The planes that returned were full of holes in the wings – and yet they still made it home. So those holes weren’t the real problem. The real danger was in the unseen data: the damage on the downed planes. This insight saved countless lives. This is the survivorship bias, a form of sampling bias.
We fall into exactly the same logical trap when we try to explain human behavior. Many people believe that the key to success is ruthlessness, arrogance – in short, being an “a**hole.” Why? Because when we look around, what do we see? Politicians, business tycoons, influencers who trample over others with brazen shamelessness – and rise to the top. Donald Trump is a perfect example: he makes outrageous statements, his demands seem irrational, and yet he stayed close to power for a long time. No wonder people conclude: “The secret to success is to act like that.”
But that’s an illusion. We don’t see all the countless jerks who tried the same approach – and failed. We don’t see the nameless career climbers who tried to dominate the world with arrogance but crashed and burned, often before even getting started. Or ran into a fist that ended their ambitions. The “a**hole strategy” has a failure rate just like anything else – but no Netflix series is made about those who failed. The winners are visible; the losers invisible – and that distorts our perception.
That’s why survivorship bias is dangerous: it makes us confuse correlation with causation. The truth is that Trump and his ilk didn’t succeed because they were jerks, but despite being jerks. Success requires something more: connections, luck, charisma, or simply being in the right place at the right time to latch onto a social mood. Being an a**hole isn’t a formula for success – it’s a risk factor.
The airplane analogy fits perfectly: we look at the bullet holes on the wings – the survivors – and draw conclusions from them. Meanwhile, the smoldering wreckage on the ground, the countless arrogant wannabes who failed, stays out of sight. But the truth lies in those invisible statistics.
I have an acquaintance. He calls himself an entrepreneur; I call him a “try-preneur.” (Note: This is a hard-to-translate wordplay. In Hungarian, “vállalkozó” means entrepreneur or business owner, while “próbálkozó” literally means someone who keeps trying things without much success.) You know the type – always chasing some new business idea, just to avoid facing the obvious: that he’s good at nothing but arrogance. His latest gig? Air conditioning installation. Honestly, I’m surprised he gets any customers – but then, bad air con is like a bad restaurant: you only get burned once. And behind the wheel, he’s just like in business and life: pushy, rude, a self-proclaimed king of the road. If he’s coming, he’s coming! He has the right of way – no matter whose lane it is. So far, he’s gotten away with it: the cops haven’t caught him, karma must be on vacation.
Then one day he came to tell me how “those Austrian cops are a**holes.” I said, “Really? Do tell.” Because I’ve never had trouble with them. Once I accidentally drove onto the highway without a toll sticker, but I exited at the first ramp. They were waiting and pulled me over. I explained, apologized, said I got lost. They smiled: “No problem, we saw it on the camera.” They gave me a map of Austria so I wouldn’t get lost next time and wished me a safe trip. (Granted, if I got lost again, they might’ve asked where the map went…) But my try-preneur friend? He didn’t get a map. They took something else. They saw him on camera too – weaving through traffic, pedal to the metal like some self-styled Niki Lauda. They waited, pulled him over. He started whining: “Why me?” They politely asked: “Shall we call you a taxi?” He blinked. Then they said: “You can’t walk on the highway, so we’ll take you to the exit. From there, you can walk or call a cab.” “But my car!” he said. “We know. We’ll tow it. You’d better send someone soon to pick it up – someone with a license – because storage will cost you.” “And my license?” “We just took that.” He lost it, started shouting about unfairness, dictatorship, and how “damn Austrians always screw over Hungarians.” Unbelievable – why do people think that when they go up against an authority that’s stronger and in the right, yelling will help?
The lesson? Two, actually:
First: Don’t fall for survivorship bias. Just because you see a few jerks at the top doesn’t mean being a jerk is the key to success. That’s just survivorship bias. You don’t see the tens of thousands of arrogant nobodies who tried and failed. Success isn’t about shamelessness – it’s about many other things. Trump didn’t become president because he’s an a**hole, but in spite of it.
Second: If you do run into one of these self-styled alphas, don’t hesitate to push their nose into the concrete wall of reality. They’re never as strong as their big mouths. And yes, you’ll be doing society a favor if you improve the stats with a few visibly broken noses. It’s not violence – it’s scientific methodology. It’s called mark-and-recapture!